Assessing the probability of different inflation outcomes
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 13 September 2021
9 min read
Where will inflation be in two years? The RBA forecasts have it back within the two-to-three per cent target band. However, in the current environment, it is far from certain that this will be achieved. QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz seeks to quantify the uncertainty over the outlook for inflation by estimating the probability of a range of potential outcomes two years from now.
What to expect when you’re expecting inflation
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 28 June 2021
6 min read
The outlook for inflation is highly uncertain. While business inflation expectations have increased to their highest level since 2008, other measures have experienced more modest gains. In this article QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders assesses the historical accuracy of various inflation expectations to gauge how much focus we should put on these different economic signals. The results suggest that inflation is likely to reach the bottom of the RBA’s target band in the second half of 2022 and will be slightly above two per cent by the middle of 2023.
Daily nowcasting of global and Australian GDP growth
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 26 May 2021
3 min read
Over a year has passed since Australia saw the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic recession, yet economic conditions are still evolving quickly. In this article QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz uses ‘nowcasting’ methods to gauge how global and Australian economic output is changing in real-time. These nowcasts show that both global and Australian GDP growth remains firm so far in 2021.
Re-assessing Australia’s economic recovery
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 29 April 2021
6 min read
Australia’s economic recovery has been swift, with leading indicators suggesting that this rapid rate of improvement could continue in the coming months. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders uses three scenarios to project what this unexpected strength could mean for the economic outlook and the RBA’s cash rate decisions through to 2030.
What’s down with Australian inflation?
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 25 March 2021
5 min read
Inflation has remained stubbornly low in Australia over the past five years, with various cyclical headwinds and structural factors weighing against the stimulatory effects of historically low interest rates. These forces are likely to continue to weigh on inflation over the coming years, prolonging the time until we see an increase in the cash rate.
In this note, we take a closer look at what has underpinned low inflation outcomes to assess where we might need to see increases if inflation is to return to its target range. A key result is that low inflation over the past five years is largely explained by a weak labour market.
2030 Vision: Outlook for the economy and interest rates
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 18 February 2021
6 min read
In a world of uncertainty, it has proven difficult to see beyond short-term time horizons. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders explores Australia’s long-term path to economic recovery and alternate perspectives on how the economy and interest rates could evolve over the course of this decade. Using three scenarios and projections he takes a look at how the cash rate could move over the decade to 2030.