Research
4 questions for ’24
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 11 January 2023
5 min read
Last year saw inflation moderate and economic conditions remain resilient. Hopes for a ‘soft landing’ are high, yet so too is uncertainty around the outlook for the economy.
Given a lack of clarity around the outlook, in this piece, I try to shed some light on four of the key questions for 2024.
- What has driven the Australian economy’s rebalancing and what could in 2024?
- What would it take for inflation to get back to the middle of the RBA’s inflation target band by the end of 2025?
- What is the likelihood of a US recession this year?
- What are the main economic and market risks (upside and downside) for 2024?
What goes up must come down – When, why and by how much will interest rates be cut
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist and Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 6 October 2023
5 min read
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised its cash rate rapidly since early last year to curb inflation and anchor expectations. But this phase may be nearing its end. In this article, QTC economists Trent Saunders and Michael Anthonisz have taken a closer look at where the cash rate might go from here, drawing on historical experience and some of the unique challenges facing the economy. They find that while there are good reasons to believe the cash rate is close to its peak, this does not mean that the RBA will cut rates anytime soon.
How tight is monetary policy in Australia?
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 13 February 2023
5 min read
With the RBA increasing interest rates by a record amount over the past year and with rates at the highest level in a decade, QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz asks in this note ‘how tight is monetary policy in Australia’?
What effect will higher interest rates have on the Australian economy?
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 1 August 2022
9 min read
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase the cash rate sharply over the coming year in response to the high outlook for inflation. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders looks at how cash rate changes have affected different parts of the economy in the past, as well as whether these responses might be different in the current cycle.
Assessing US recession risks
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 30 May 2022
5 min read
In this article, QTC Chief Economist estimates the probability of a future recession using the 2‑year/10-year yield curve as well as a range of alternate measures. He finds that the 2-year/10-year yield curve currently overstates the odds of a US recession over the next 12 months. Though, given the scale of the inflation challenge in the US and the relative lack of ‘soft landings’ in these contexts historically, it would not be surprising to see aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve lead to a recession over a longer time horizon.
Part 2 of 2 – How high could the RBA take the cash rate? Estimates of the neutral and terminal rate in Australia
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 22 February 2022
9 min read
This is the second of a two-part series by QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders, which explores the longer-term outlook for the cash rate. This follows Trent’s previous article ‘Part 1 of 2 – An RBA hiking cycle: Some paths less travelled’ that discussed the expected timing of the initial increase in the cash rate and the path it may take over the next couple of years.
Part 1 of 2 – An RBA hiking cycle: Some paths less travelled
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 28 January 2022
9 min read
The strength of the economic recovery, coupled with a rise in global inflation, has seen an increased focus on the outlook for monetary policy in Australia. Indeed, even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has suggested that cash rate hikes are unlikely this year, market-based measures suggest that this could occur as soon as mid-2022. Given these different views, in this note I examine different paths the cash rate could take during a policy tightening cycle, something we haven’t encountered for some time.
This is the first of a two-part series exploring the outlook for the cash rate. The second note will be released in the next fortnight and will discuss the long-term outlook for the cash rate.
Re-assessing Australia’s economic recovery
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 29 April 2021
6 min read
Australia’s economic recovery has been swift, with leading indicators suggesting that this rapid rate of improvement could continue in the coming months. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders uses three scenarios to project what this unexpected strength could mean for the economic outlook and the RBA’s cash rate decisions through to 2030.
2030 Vision: Outlook for the economy and interest rates
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 18 February 2021
6 min read
In a world of uncertainty, it has proven difficult to see beyond short-term time horizons. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders explores Australia’s long-term path to economic recovery and alternate perspectives on how the economy and interest rates could evolve over the course of this decade. Using three scenarios and projections he takes a look at how the cash rate could move over the decade to 2030.