Research about forecasts

Hear from QTC’s economists about topical issues important to the global and Australian economies, and financial markets. QTC’s economists write a broad range of articles on the macroeconomy, monetary policy and markets, drawing insights from key resources and economic models. We share research in these areas for our public-sector clients and the investor community.

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Research

Assessing the probability of different inflation outcomes

Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 13 September 2021
9 min read

   

Where will inflation be in two years? The RBA forecasts have it back within the two-to-three per cent target band. However, in the current environment, it is far from certain that this will be achieved. QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz seeks to quantify the uncertainty over the outlook for inflation by estimating the probability of a range of potential outcomes two years from now.

What to expect when you’re expecting inflation

Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 28 June 2021
6 min read

    

The outlook for inflation is highly uncertain. While business inflation expectations have increased to their highest level since 2008, other measures have experienced more modest gains. In this article QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders assesses the historical accuracy of various inflation expectations to gauge how much focus we should put on these different economic signals. The results suggest that inflation is likely to reach the bottom of the RBA’s target band in the second half of 2022 and will be slightly above two per cent by the middle of 2023.

Daily nowcasting of global and Australian GDP growth

Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 26 May 2021
3 min read

 

Over a year has passed since Australia saw the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic recession, yet economic conditions are still evolving quickly. In this article QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz uses ‘nowcasting’ methods to gauge how global and Australian economic output is changing in real-time. These nowcasts show that both global and Australian GDP growth remains firm so far in 2021.

Re-assessing Australia’s economic recovery

Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 29 April 2021
6 min read

        

Australia’s economic recovery has been swift, with leading indicators suggesting that this rapid rate of improvement could continue in the coming months. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders uses three scenarios to project what this unexpected strength could mean for the economic outlook and the RBA’s cash rate decisions through to 2030.

2030 Vision: Outlook for the economy and interest rates 

Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 18 February 2021
6 min read

      

In a world of uncertainty, it has proven difficult to see beyond short-term time horizons. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders explores Australia’s long-term path to economic recovery and alternate perspectives on how the economy and interest rates could evolve over the course of this decade. Using three scenarios and projections he takes a look at how the cash rate could move over the decade to 2030.